??? 托尼?法德?tīng)栠^(guò)去曾讓質(zhì)疑者們大跌眼鏡,。10年前,，法德?tīng)枠?gòu)思并幫助制作出了一款漂亮的小玩意，并將其推向市場(chǎng),，不過(guò)當(dāng)時(shí)許多分析師不以為然,，紛紛表示這款新式高科技“玩具”離普通大眾的生活太遙遠(yuǎn),。結(jié)果,，這個(gè)預(yù)言不幸榮登科技史上最悲催預(yù)言排行榜。法德?tīng)柕膇Pod銷量超過(guò)3億部,，而且仍然沒(méi)有停下前進(jìn)的步伐。它徹底改變了整個(gè)音樂(lè)產(chǎn)業(yè),。
????法德?tīng)柸缃癖蛔u(yù)為“iPod之父”,，他希望這次能再次讓質(zhì)疑者們閉嘴。法德?tīng)栐I(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)隊(duì)成功開(kāi)發(fā)iPod并在iPhone開(kāi)發(fā)中起到舉足輕重作用,，不過(guò)2008年,，他從蘋(píng)果（Apple）的管理職位上辭職。過(guò)去兩年,，法德?tīng)栆恢痹谛燎诠ぷ?，秘密開(kāi)發(fā)一款新的電子器件。和iPod類似,，這款新玩意也是通過(guò)簡(jiǎn)單的撥號(hào)盤(pán)控制,。當(dāng)然，和iPad一樣,，它也會(huì)遭遇懷疑者們鋪天蓋地的質(zhì)疑,。因?yàn)檫@畢竟只是一款恒溫器。
????不過(guò)如果說(shuō)iPod是一款非凡的音樂(lè)播放器,，那么由法德?tīng)枎ьI(lǐng)的新創(chuàng)企業(yè)Nest Labs打造的這款恒溫器也必定非同一般,，和普通美國(guó)人家中用于控制供暖和空調(diào)的單調(diào)塑料小玩意肯定大不相同,。Nest恒溫器于10月25日發(fā)布，有望在今年11月中旬上市,。首先,，它的外形設(shè)計(jì)非常優(yōu)雅、簡(jiǎn)潔,，法德?tīng)栐谶@方面延續(xù)了他替前老板史蒂夫?喬布斯打工時(shí)掌握的手藝,。更為重要的是，一如iPhone讓手機(jī)實(shí)現(xiàn)了智能化,，Nest則希望賦予恒溫器以智慧：它能按照用戶的生活習(xí)慣和設(shè)定的溫度進(jìn)行自我編程,。它能不斷改進(jìn)自己，根據(jù)用戶的出入進(jìn)行溫度調(diào)整,；用戶外出時(shí),，它還能自動(dòng)關(guān)閉。
????法德?tīng)柗QNest的設(shè)想來(lái)自蘋(píng)果,。當(dāng)初iPhone的設(shè)計(jì)理念并不是一部智能手機(jī),，而是一臺(tái)可以打電話的電腦。Nest在帕洛阿爾托市的辦公室并不起眼,，最近法德?tīng)栐诖私邮芰瞬稍L,。他說(shuō)：“這并不是一部捆綁了很多通訊功能的恒溫器，而是一臺(tái)電腦兼通訊平臺(tái),，不過(guò)在此之上附加了一些恒溫器的功能,。”它可以幫助人們減少能源支出,。
????Nest恒溫器緣起于法德?tīng)枌?duì)現(xiàn)有設(shè)備的失望,。法德?tīng)栐谒艉闲藿艘淮惫?jié)能房屋。當(dāng)時(shí),，建筑師向其請(qǐng)示恒溫器選擇,，他拒絕了所有提議。法德?tīng)柋硎荆骸皯?yīng)該有更好的選擇,?！焙銣仄骺刂浦ㄖ蠹s50%的能耗，但這些年來(lái),，這些裝置并沒(méi)有多大改進(jìn),。數(shù)百萬(wàn)家庭仍在使用手動(dòng)恒溫器。高級(jí)的可編程恒溫器很難使用而且需要不斷配置,?！叭绻雽?shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能的目標(biāo)，就必須不斷地給恒溫器編程?！?/p>
????法德?tīng)枦Q定帶領(lǐng)來(lái)自蘋(píng)果,、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)語(yǔ)音技術(shù)公司General Magic、數(shù)字媒體設(shè)備公司Sling Media和電視服務(wù)商Web TV等公司的精英們自行設(shè)計(jì)和開(kāi)發(fā)Nest恒溫器,，他還得到了凱鵬華盈（Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers）,、谷歌風(fēng)投（Google Ventures）等公司的資金支援。Nest恒溫器的外包裝盒非常精美,，安裝起來(lái)也很容易,。它的售價(jià)為249美元，將由百思買（Best Buy）等電子產(chǎn)品零售店直接出售給消費(fèi)者,。在最開(kāi)始的一周,，它需要手動(dòng)調(diào)整。不過(guò)此后,，由機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)方面專家所設(shè)計(jì)的算法就能接班,，開(kāi)始自動(dòng)設(shè)定溫度。這些算法會(huì)在用戶每次手動(dòng)調(diào)整溫度時(shí)進(jìn)行自我學(xué)習(xí),。恒溫器上的傳感器會(huì)不停監(jiān)測(cè)溫度,、濕度、環(huán)境光以及設(shè)備周邊和房間里遠(yuǎn)離設(shè)備的其它動(dòng)靜,。法德?tīng)柋硎荆骸拔覀兡軌虬l(fā)現(xiàn)房間里是否有人,。只需一周，我們就能了解用戶的日常作息習(xí)慣和溫度喜好,。隨著時(shí)間推移,，我們會(huì)不斷自我適應(yīng),?！?/p>
????調(diào)整Nest恒溫器的溫度非常容易：只需將恒溫器的外圈向上或向下旋轉(zhuǎn)即可。點(diǎn)擊顯示屏,，會(huì)出現(xiàn)直觀的菜單,。恒溫器還能連接到屋內(nèi)的Wi-Fi網(wǎng)絡(luò)中，用戶可以使用手機(jī)或平板電腦進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)程遙控,。通過(guò)PC和移動(dòng)平臺(tái)的應(yīng)用程序能監(jiān)測(cè)能源消耗和節(jié)能情況,。法德?tīng)柗Q只需要大概一年，Nest恒溫器就能讓購(gòu)買者從節(jié)能費(fèi)用上收回購(gòu)機(jī)成本,。
????雖然Nest恒溫器的市場(chǎng)定位瞄準(zhǔn)以iPhone為代表的新生代早期采用者,，但法德?tīng)柗Q潛在市場(chǎng)非常寬廣。美國(guó)家庭目前使用了1.5億個(gè)恒溫器,，而小型辦公室和商業(yè)區(qū)也使用了大約1億個(gè),。每年約有1,000萬(wàn)個(gè)新的恒溫器被售出。法德?tīng)柋硎荆骸斑@個(gè)銷量和美國(guó)市場(chǎng)自行車的銷量相差無(wú)幾?！?/p>
????法德?tīng)栆苍S沒(méi)錯(cuò),。不過(guò)人們?cè)敢鉃樽孕熊囂湾X，而且許多愛(ài)好者會(huì)花大價(jià)錢購(gòu)置自行車以相互炫耀,。那么恒溫器呢,？恐怕未必如此。因此Nest的未來(lái)真是很難預(yù)測(cè),。
????盡管如此,，法德?tīng)栠€是計(jì)劃繼續(xù)開(kāi)發(fā)恒溫器之外的東西。就像Nest（意思是屋,、巢——譯注）公司名字所預(yù)示的,，該公司將繼續(xù)致力于家居產(chǎn)品。法德?tīng)柋硎荆骸昂銣仄魇俏覀兊谝豢町a(chǎn)品,。我們希望開(kāi)發(fā)出更多的產(chǎn)品,。家居用品市場(chǎng)缺乏創(chuàng)新，我們可以將設(shè)計(jì)天賦投注到更多恒溫器以外的設(shè)備上,?！?/p>
????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
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????Tony Fadell has defied skeptics before. Ten years ago, when a slick gadget he conceived and helped to build hit the market, most analysts shrugged, saying the new tech toy would be irrelevant to most people. The prediction ranks among to top bloopers in the history of tech punditry. Fadell's gadget, the iPod, sold more than 300 million units and, in the process, revolutionized the music industry.
????Now Fadell, who has been called the "father of the iPod," is hoping to prove skeptics wrong one more time. After leading the team that built the iPod and playing a key role in the development of the iPhone, Fadell left his executive role at Apple (AAPL) in 2008. For the past two years, he has been hard at work quietly building a new electronic gadget. Like the iPod, it is controlled through a simple dial. And like the iPod, it's likely to be greeted with skepticism. It is, after all, a thermostat.
????But if the iPod was no ordinary music player, the thermostat built by Nest Labs, Fadell's startup, is nothing like the drab plastic devices that control heating and air conditioning in millions of American homes. For starters, the device, which is being introduced on Tuesday and will be available in mid-November, has the kind of elegant, minimalist design that Fadell learned while working for his former boss, Steve Jobs. More important, just like the iPhone made cellphones smart, Nest wants to bring intelligence to thermostats: the device programs itself based on your daily routines and the temperatures you set. It constantly refines itself, senses your comings and goings to adjust accordingly, and automatically turns itself off when you are away.
????Fadell says Nest was built on ideas that he learned at Apple, where the iPhone was conceived not as a cell phone with smarts, but rather as a computer that could make phone calls. "This is not a thermostat with a bunch of communications features," Fadell said during a recent interview in the company's unmarked offices in Palo Alto. "It is a computer and communications platforms with a little bit of thermostat." And it is designed to help people cut their energy bills, he said.
????The idea for Nest came out of frustration. Fadell was building an energy-efficient home near Lake Tahoe. When his contractor showed him his thermostat choices, Fadell balked. "There has to be something better," he said. While thermostats manage roughly 50% of a home's energy use, they haven't changed much in years. Millions of homes are stillequipped with manual thermostats. The more advanced programmable thermostats are difficult to use and require constant adjustments. "If you want to do any kind of energy savings, you are programming them all the time," Fadell says.
????With a team of veterans from Apple, General Magic, Sling Media and Web TV, and with financing from Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Google Ventures (GOOG) and others, Fadell set out to design and build the Nest thermostat. The device, which will be sold directly to consumers at electronic stores like Best Buy (BBY) for $249, comes in an elegant box and is easy to install. In the first week, it relies on manual adjustments. But after that, algorithms designed by machine learning experts, set the temperature automatically. Those algorithms refine themselves every time you manually adjust the temperature. Sensors constantly monitor temperature and humidity, as well as ambient light and activity near the device or farther away in the house. "We can see if there is anyone in your home," says Fadell. "We learn your schedule and your temperature preferences over a week. And we adapt continuously over time."
????Adjusting the Nest thermostat is easy: you simply rotate the outer ring up or down. Pushing on the display opens a set of intuitive menus. It also can connect to your home's Wi-Fi network, allowing you to control it remotely from a phone or tablet. PC and mobile apps allow you to monitor your energy use and savings. Fadell says that energy savings will help buyers recoup the cost of device in about a year.
????While the Nest thermostat is clearly aimed at early adopters in the iPhone generation, Fadell says the potential market is large. There are some 150 million thermostats in American homes and another 100 million in small offices and businesses. Every year, some 10 million new units are sold. "That's as many as bicycles are sold in the United States," he says.
????That may be true. But bicycle are toys that people love to play with and many fans will pay good money for bicycles they can show off. Thermostats? Not so much, which makes it all the more difficult to handicap's Nest future.
????Regardless, Fadell plans to push his company beyond thermostats. As the name Nest suggests, the company will continue to be focused on products for the home. "It's our first product," he says. "We have ambitions for more. There is a lack of innovation in the home and we can apply our design talents to things other than thermostats." |
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