????不過,，仔細(xì)審視Yelp的IPO招股書會發(fā)現(xiàn)，這家公司其實(shí)與Groupon頗為神似,，這可能會讓眾多投資者感到不安。其一,，Yelp的財(cái)報(bào)始終是虧損狀態(tài),。2011年的前9個(gè)月，它的運(yùn)營虧損達(dá)到740萬美元,，相當(dāng)于它這段時(shí)期4,030萬美元營收的15%,。迄今為止,，Yelp的累計(jì)虧損已達(dá)到3,200萬美元（而相比之下，Zynga公司同期的運(yùn)營利潤達(dá)到了10%）,。
????收入增長緩慢，這是Groupon近期讓人擔(dān)憂的一大問題,，但Yelp還不至于受到這一問題的嚴(yán)重困擾,。2009年，Yelp的收入增長了113%。2010年,，增長率放緩，降至85%,，但2011年前9個(gè)月,，這個(gè)數(shù)字仍然穩(wěn)定地維持在80%。最近一個(gè)財(cái)季,，Yelp的收入比上一財(cái)季增長了18%,。而同期Groupon的增長率僅為為9%,。雖然Yelp比Groupon的歷史要長，它的連續(xù)增長率卻是后者的兩倍,。
????不過,，Yelp還面臨一些Groupon所沒有的問題。其一,，它的運(yùn)營成本持續(xù)上漲,。上一財(cái)季，Yelp的銷售和營銷成本達(dá)到了總收入的67%,，比上一財(cái)季的63%還高。同樣的,，產(chǎn)品研發(fā)成本從14%增至16%,，行政成本從18%增至21%。
????尤其需要警惕的是,，Yelp還沒有產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流,，其運(yùn)營還不足以支撐其自身的開銷,。2011年的前9個(gè)月，運(yùn)營產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流是負(fù)值296,000美元,，盡管與一年前負(fù)值640萬美元相比,，已經(jīng)大幅下降,。Groupon的現(xiàn)金流自2009年以來就始終是正值，而Yelp雖然即將上市,，其運(yùn)營卻似乎完全是靠燒錢來維持,。
????作為一家新創(chuàng)企業(yè)，Yelp廣受歡迎,，增長迅速,，它需要籌集資本來實(shí)現(xiàn)未來的增長。但不幸的是,，它多年虧損,，歷年來都無法從運(yùn)營中產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流。這些情況表明,，它現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行IPO有些操之過急。鑒于市場近期對虧損賠錢的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司IPO熱情不再,，這對它來說實(shí)在不是好兆頭,。
????曾有一度，在難以捉摸的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中,，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的美好前景讓LinkedIn和Yelp這類公司似乎成了投資者的避風(fēng)港，但這種美好時(shí)光也許已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在,。諸如Zynga這類能夠盈利的公司在IPO市場上仍將受到熱捧,，而業(yè)績欠佳的公司就很可能會不受待見，而是會被橡皮球一樣被人踢來踢去,。而期間發(fā)出的尖叫（yelp）不可能悅耳。
????譯者：清遠(yuǎn) |
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????But a closer look at Yelp's IPO prospectus shows the company looks more Groupon-y than many investors would be comfortable with. For one thing, Yelp has consistently posted a loss. In the first nine months of 2011, it showed an operating loss of $7.4 million, equal to 15% of its $40.3 million revenue in that period. To date, Yelp has accumulated $32 million in losses. (Zynga, by contrast had a 10% operating margin in the first nine months of 2011.)
????Slowing revenue growth, one of Groupon's recent concerns, isn't afflicting Yelp so much. In 2009, Yelp's revenue grew by 113%. In 2010, the growth rate slowed somewhat to 85% but held steady at 80% for the first nine months of 2011. Yelp's most recent quarter saw revenue grow 18% from the previous quarter, compared with a 9% growth rate for Groupon. Although Yelp is older than Groupon, it's growing twice as fast sequentially.
????Still, Yelp faces some problems that Groupon doesn't. For one, its operating costs are rising. Yelp's sales and marketing costs were equal to 67% of its revenue last quarter, up from 63% in the previous quarter. Similarly, product-development costs rose to 16% of revenue from 14% and administrative costs rose to 21% from 18%.
????Even more alarming, Yelp has yet to generate cash flows. Its operations aren't yet financing themselves. Cash flows from operations were a negative $296,000 in the first nine months of 2011, although that figure was down from negative $6.4 million a year earlier. While Groupon has been cash-flow positive since 2009, Yelp's operations appear to be burning through cash even as it's going public.
????Yelp is a popular and growing startup that needs to raise capital to finance its future growth. Unfortunately, its years of losses and historical inability to generate cash from operations suggest the IPO is being rushed. That's too bad for the company, given the recent sense of disenchantment with money-losing web IPOs.
????For some time, the promise of the social web made companies like LinkedIn and Yelp seem like investor safe havens in an uncertain economy. But maybe not anymore. A profitable company like Zynga could still receive a warm welcome in the IPO market. But weaker companies are likely to get kicked around. The yelps that result won't be happy ones. |
