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Zynga上市首日破發(fā)實屬正常
作者:
Kevin Kelleher
時間:
2011年12月22日
來源: 財富中文網(wǎng)
位置：
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不錯,，這家社交游戲公司的股票上市伊始就表現(xiàn)不佳,。但是，深入分析之后,，我們發(fā)現(xiàn),，事情遠不是這么簡單,。
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????而且，從表面上來看,，按上市價計算，Zynga公司70億美元的估價未免過高,，這也屬實。70億美元,，已經(jīng)相當于該公司過去一年營收額的7倍，凈收入的95倍,。一方面,，按多數(shù)標準衡量,，這不免有些荒唐，因為不管怎么說,，標準普爾指數(shù)（S&P）500強公司的股票交易價都是其贏利的14倍,。另一方面,，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股票投資者通常能心甘情愿地接受對有些網(wǎng)絡(luò)股票的過高估價,。亞馬遜公司（Amazon）的市贏率就為95,，但有些分析師預(yù)測說,，該公司的每股贏利將降至2007年以來的最低點,。而且,，與LinkedIn相比,，Zynga的市贏率也相對較低,。前者的市贏率高達400，尚在健康范圍之內(nèi),。而Groupon過去一年內(nèi)則損失慘重,。
????今天，許多市場專家對Zynga公司70億美元的市值提出了質(zhì)疑,；相比之下，如果在今年夏天Zynga如日中天時就提出質(zhì)疑,，無疑要困難得多,；那時,，只有寥寥幾名分析師預(yù)計Zynga市值將達200億美元。早在今年2月,，投資者們曾興高采烈地認為,，Zynga的市值將達100億美元,。當時的最新財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，其營收額要遠低于最近公布的數(shù)字,。
????這到底是怎么回事,？有幾個原因。首先,，Zynga的指標顯示,，其發(fā)展速度放緩,。最近幾個季度,，該公司的活躍用戶持續(xù)呈下降之勢。此外,，其運營利潤也持續(xù)震蕩走低,。雖然這些現(xiàn)象投資游戲行業(yè)投資的必然現(xiàn)象,，，誰也不知道公司推出的下一款游戲會是什么情況,，而且這一行業(yè)就贏利而言,，旱的旱死,，澇的澇死,。Zynga的財務(wù)狀況自然也逃脫不了這個規(guī)律。但是,，它的表現(xiàn)仍然勝過其他所有不斷出產(chǎn)熱門游戲的休閑游戲公司。 |
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????And on the face of it, it's also true that Zynga's $7 billion valuation at launch was too high. At $7 billion, Zynga was worth seven times revenue and 95 times its net income over the past 12 months. On the one hand, that's absurd by most measures. After all, the S&P 500 is trading at 14 times earnings. On the other hand, investors in Internet stocks are routinely willing to tolerate higher valuation for some web stocks. Amazon (AMZN) has a price-earnings ratio of 95, even though some analysts are predicting the company will post its lowest earnings per share since 2007. And Zynga's PE is a relative bargain compared to LinkedIn, which is just on the sane side of 400, and Groupon, which has posted a significant loss over its past 12 months.
????For many market pundits, it's somehow easier to be easier to question Zynga's $7 billion value today than it was this summer, when only a few were wagging their fingers at the prospect of a $20 billion Zynga. And back in February, investors were delighted to value Zynga at $10 billion, when the most recent financial data had revenue showed revenue well below the most recently disclosed figure.
????What happened? A couple of things. First, Zynga's metrics hinted at a slowdown. Active users have been declining in recent quarters. And operating margins have fluctuated downward. But these things are part and parcel of investing in the gaming industry, where you're only as good as your last title and profits are a feast-or-famine phenomenon. Zynga hasn't proven invulnerable to such choppy financials, but it's doing a better job than any other casual-gaming company of churning out hit after hit. |
Zynga與LinkedIn運營利潤比較
????對于Web 2.0公司而言，營收額和利潤波動不定,，本是尋常之事。我們來看看對Zynga和LinkedIn的營收額和運營利潤進行比較的兩張圖,。雖然Zynga的營收額增長穩(wěn)定（如果其增長稍顯緩慢的話，不妨看看最后一個季度的數(shù)字）,，但其運營利潤卻跟LinkedIn一樣搖擺不定,。過去的5個季度中,，Zynga的利潤始終至少是LinkedIn的3倍。
????但是,，LinkedIn的股票價格卻高于Zynga,。原因何在,？也許那是因為LinkedIn首席執(zhí)行官雷德?霍夫曼擺出了一付惹人憐愛的姿態(tài),，使得該公司成了公眾眼中的神話。而Zynga首席執(zhí)行官馬克?平克斯則被描述成了笨蛋,。而且,，平克斯還由于嚴格限制股東的投票權(quán)而飽受指責,。相形之下,，LinkedIn則因為采用了雙重股票結(jié)構(gòu),，雖然此結(jié)構(gòu)也會限制股東的權(quán)利,，但引發(fā)的爭議卻小得多。
????上述所有論證并非要說明,，Zynga的股票交易價必須更高。它并不值那么多,，但2011年其他多數(shù)實行同類首次公開募股的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司,，同樣也不值那么高的估價。Zynga與這些公司一樣,，它所面臨的風險并未完全體現(xiàn)在股票交易價中,。它們的股價將繼續(xù)搖擺不定。但如果僅僅因此,，根據(jù)一支股票兩天內(nèi)的交易情況就下斷論說,，這支股票的長期前景慘淡，那也未免太過荒謬。
????Zynga上市后不冷不熱的股票交易價,，恰恰說明它是一支高昂又頗具風險的股票,。這一現(xiàn)象說明，市場運轉(zhuǎn)正?！，F(xiàn)在的問題是,，市場是否會對其他被高估了的網(wǎng)絡(luò)首次公開募股產(chǎn)生同樣的影響。
????譯者：樸成奎 |
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????Volatile revenues and profit margins aren't unusual for web 2.0 companies. Look at the charts comparing Zynga's revenue and operating margin with LinkedIn. Not only Zynga's revenue growing steadily (if a bit more slowly, looking at the last quarter) but it's operating margin is just as volatile as LinkedIn's. And yet Zynga's profit margin margin is at least three times as big as LinkedIn in any of the past five quarters.
????Yet LinkedIn trades at a higher valuation. Why? Perhaps it's because LinkedIn's CEO Reid Hoffman is drawing profiles so fawning they border on an apotheosis, while Zynga's Mark Pincus is depicted as a lout. Pincus was also called out for controlling Zynga's hoarding the voting rights of shareholders. But LinkedIn employed a dual-class stock structure that also limited shareholder rights, to much less of a controversy.
????None of this is to argue that Zynga deserves to trade higher. It doesn't, but neither do most of the other web IPOs of the class of 2011. Like them, Zynga faces risks that aren't fully reflected in their trading prices. They will all be volatile, and because of that it doesn't make sense to write off a stock's long-term prospects based on two days of trading.
????Zynga's lukewarm reception is the proper response to an expensive, risky stock. It shows the market is working. Now if it would only work on other overpriced web IPOs as well. |
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