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????部分原因在于，隨著新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家央行開始著手對(duì)抗通貨膨脹,，新興市場(chǎng)股票的市盈率也將會(huì)下降,。這種情況尤以亞洲為甚。人們普遍擔(dān)憂：在世界面臨新一輪金融危機(jī)之際,，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃或?qū)⑼?。這一擔(dān)憂致美元從亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體大量外流。今年1月,，外界對(duì)亞洲商品的需求量達(dá)到經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇后的高峰,，但此后需求量持續(xù)走低，不能不引起人們的擔(dān)憂——本地市場(chǎng)發(fā)展不充分,，不足以擺脫由于西方市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)能力減弱而導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷,。

本土消費(fèi)將助一臂之力

????盡管在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度放緩的大形勢(shì)下新興市場(chǎng)將經(jīng)歷凄風(fēng)苦雨,，但是和之前經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)所面臨的困境相比，這次的情況并非生死攸關(guān),。很顯然,，目前大部分新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體都以出口為主，也有跡象表明,，新興市場(chǎng)能夠通過刺激消費(fèi)來擺脫衰退,。對(duì)于新興市場(chǎng)政府來說，應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的關(guān)鍵是大力支持本國(guó)貨幣,，保護(hù)本國(guó)國(guó)民的儲(chǔ)蓄,。到目前為止，亞洲各國(guó)的消費(fèi)率仍然保持穩(wěn)定,。以韓國(guó)為例,，根據(jù)英國(guó)巴克萊銀行（Barclays）最新數(shù)據(jù)，雖然該國(guó)最近出口貿(mào)易疲軟,，再加上股指暴跌,，該國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)需求熱度不減，個(gè)人在購(gòu)買進(jìn)口汽車方面的消費(fèi)依然強(qiáng)勁,。

????亞洲各國(guó)政府可以采取相應(yīng)措施,，提振本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)信心，阻止美元的外流,；同時(shí),，穩(wěn)定本國(guó)貨幣，以保持國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)本國(guó)及進(jìn)口商品的消費(fèi)水平,。就這方面而言,，韓國(guó)顯然在各新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體中處于領(lǐng)先地位。為遏制韓元貶值,，本周,，韓國(guó)央行（Bank of Korea）采取了一項(xiàng)激進(jìn)的匯市干預(yù)措施。據(jù)報(bào)道,，韓國(guó)央行拋出了100億美元,，用以彌補(bǔ)由于華爾街資金撤退所造成的影響。這一舉措在周五成功地穩(wěn)定了韓元兌美元的匯率,。

????韓國(guó)如此迅速且果斷的救市舉措值得其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體效仿,。對(duì)于大部分新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家來說，這簡(jiǎn)直是小菜一碟,，因?yàn)樗鼈兣c美國(guó)存在較大的貿(mào)易順差,，手中持有大量美元儲(chǔ)備。現(xiàn)在,，關(guān)鍵是要在不影響本國(guó)大型企業(yè)盈利能力的情況下,，通過注入足夠的美元以保持本國(guó)購(gòu)買力,。但各國(guó)要根據(jù)自己的情況找到適合自己的最佳平衡點(diǎn)。

????新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體盡管目前正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)困境,，但是來年定會(huì)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的局面,。因?yàn)樾屡d市場(chǎng)國(guó)家人民日益富裕，國(guó)內(nèi)需求也會(huì)相應(yīng)增長(zhǎng),，將在本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)中發(fā)揮更大的作用,。隨著世界范圍內(nèi)的需求量下跌，商品將更加低廉,，有助于當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)削減成本,，從而將更多商品用于供應(yīng)本地市場(chǎng)。

????只要本國(guó)貨幣保持穩(wěn)定,，就可以保持國(guó)民的消費(fèi)能力,，這樣，盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣,，國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)依然會(huì)有所增長(zhǎng),。只要抓住這一線希望，新興市場(chǎng)必將走出低谷,，屆時(shí),，華爾街投資者的美金必將不請(qǐng)自來。

????譯者：李淑玉/劉進(jìn)龍

????Part of the reason for this is that price to earnings multiples in emerging market equities tend to fall when their central banks start fighting inflation. This is particularly important in Asia. U.S. dollars are moving out of Asian economies on fears that businesses might cancel expansion plans as the world faces another recession. External demand for Asian goods continues to weaken from their post-recovery peak in January of this year and there is concern that the local market is not developed enough to pick up the slack from reduced consumption from the west.

Consumption will soften the blow

????While emerging markets will experience headwinds in a global economic slowdown, it doesn't have to be catastrophic as was the case in past downturns. While most emerging economies are clearly export driven, there are signs that the local economies could blunt the downturn by consuming more. The key would be for emerging market governments to protect the savings of their populace by supporting the local currency. For now, consumption rates in Asian countries are holding. Take a look at Korea. Recent weakness in exports and the sharp decline in the Korean stock market have yet to dampen domestic demand, with discretionary spending on imported cars remaining strong, for example, according to Barclays (BCS).

????Asian governments can help support their local economies and pump up confidence in their markets to help stem the outflow of U.S. dollars, while at the same time supporting their local currency to preserve domestic consumption of both local and imported goods. South Korea appears to be on the vanguard of the emerging market economies in this regard. The Bank of Korea has been very aggressive this week in trying to stem slides in the won, dumping a reported $10 billion to make up for the investment outflows from Wall Street. The action was successful in capping losses on the won versus the U.S. dollar on Friday.

????Such quick and decisive action on the part of the South Koreans should be replicated across other emerging market economies. This should be relatively easy for most of them as they possess large U.S. dollar reserves given their large trade surpluses with the U.S. The key will be to inject just enough dollars to preserve purchasing power without compromising the earnings power of their largest companies. A careful balance needs to be found, which will be bespoke for each country.

????Emerging market economies are still slated to see robust growth next year despite the current headwinds. A larger percentage of that growth will be from a pickup in domestic demand as their populations grow richer. Cheaper commodity prices due to a perceived downswing in worldwide demand will help local businesses cut costs, allowing them to offer more of their products to the local population.

????If local currencies remain stable, then purchasing power will be preserved, allowing for domestic consumption to grow despite the economic downturn. This silver lining should help emerging markets rebound from their current lows and once again become an attractive place for Wall Street to park its cash.