亚色在线观看_亚洲人成a片高清在线观看不卡_亚洲中文无码亚洲人成频_免费在线黄片,69精品视频九九精品视频,美女大黄三级,人人干人人g,全新av网站每日更新播放,亚洲三及片,wwww无码视频,亚洲中文字幕无码一区在线

????部分原因在于,，隨著新興市場國家央行開始著手對抗通貨膨脹,，新興市場股票的市盈率也將會下降。這種情況尤以亞洲為甚,。人們普遍擔憂：在世界面臨新一輪金融危機之際,，新興市場國家的貿易擴張計劃或將停滯。這一擔憂致美元從亞洲經(jīng)濟體大量外流,。今年1月,，外界對亞洲商品的需求量達到經(jīng)濟復蘇后的高峰，但此后需求量持續(xù)走低,，不能不引起人們的擔憂——本地市場發(fā)展不充分,，不足以擺脫由于西方市場消費能力減弱而導致的經(jīng)濟低迷。

本土消費將助一臂之力

????盡管在全球經(jīng)濟增長速度放緩的大形勢下新興市場將經(jīng)歷凄風苦雨,，但是和之前經(jīng)濟衰退時所面臨的困境相比,，這次的情況并非生死攸關。很顯然,，目前大部分新興經(jīng)濟體都以出口為主,，也有跡象表明,，新興市場能夠通過刺激消費來擺脫衰退,。對于新興市場政府來說,，應對危機的關鍵是大力支持本國貨幣,，保護本國國民的儲蓄。到目前為止,，亞洲各國的消費率仍然保持穩(wěn)定,。以韓國為例，根據(jù)英國巴克萊銀行（Barclays）最新數(shù)據(jù),，雖然該國最近出口貿易疲軟,，再加上股指暴跌，該國的國內需求熱度不減,，個人在購買進口汽車方面的消費依然強勁,。

????亞洲各國政府可以采取相應措施，提振本國經(jīng)濟和當?shù)厥袌鲂判?，阻止美元的外流；同時,，穩(wěn)定本國貨幣,，以保持國內對本國及進口商品的消費水平。就這方面而言,，韓國顯然在各新興經(jīng)濟體中處于領先地位,。為遏制韓元貶值，本周,，韓國央行（Bank of Korea）采取了一項激進的匯市干預措施,。據(jù)報道，韓國央行拋出了100億美元,，用以彌補由于華爾街資金撤退所造成的影響,。這一舉措在周五成功地穩(wěn)定了韓元兌美元的匯率。

????韓國如此迅速且果斷的救市舉措值得其他新興經(jīng)濟體效仿,。對于大部分新興市場國家來說,，這簡直是小菜一碟，因為它們與美國存在較大的貿易順差,，手中持有大量美元儲備?，F(xiàn)在，關鍵是要在不影響本國大型企業(yè)盈利能力的情況下,，通過注入足夠的美元以保持本國購買力,。但各國要根據(jù)自己的情況找到適合自己的最佳平衡點。

????新興市場經(jīng)濟體盡管目前正處于經(jīng)濟困境,，但是來年定會出現(xiàn)強勁增長的局面,。因為新興市場國家人民日益富裕，國內需求也會相應增長,，將在本國經(jīng)濟的增長中發(fā)揮更大的作用,。隨著世界范圍內的需求量下跌,，商品將更加低廉，有助于當?shù)仄髽I(yè)削減成本,，從而將更多商品用于供應本地市場,。

????只要本國貨幣保持穩(wěn)定，就可以保持國民的消費能力,，這樣,，盡管全球經(jīng)濟不景氣，國內消費依然會有所增長,。只要抓住這一線希望,，新興市場必將走出低谷，屆時,，華爾街投資者的美金必將不請自來,。

????譯者：李淑玉/劉進龍

????Part of the reason for this is that price to earnings multiples in emerging market equities tend to fall when their central banks start fighting inflation. This is particularly important in Asia. U.S. dollars are moving out of Asian economies on fears that businesses might cancel expansion plans as the world faces another recession. External demand for Asian goods continues to weaken from their post-recovery peak in January of this year and there is concern that the local market is not developed enough to pick up the slack from reduced consumption from the west.

Consumption will soften the blow

????While emerging markets will experience headwinds in a global economic slowdown, it doesn't have to be catastrophic as was the case in past downturns. While most emerging economies are clearly export driven, there are signs that the local economies could blunt the downturn by consuming more. The key would be for emerging market governments to protect the savings of their populace by supporting the local currency. For now, consumption rates in Asian countries are holding. Take a look at Korea. Recent weakness in exports and the sharp decline in the Korean stock market have yet to dampen domestic demand, with discretionary spending on imported cars remaining strong, for example, according to Barclays (BCS).

????Asian governments can help support their local economies and pump up confidence in their markets to help stem the outflow of U.S. dollars, while at the same time supporting their local currency to preserve domestic consumption of both local and imported goods. South Korea appears to be on the vanguard of the emerging market economies in this regard. The Bank of Korea has been very aggressive this week in trying to stem slides in the won, dumping a reported $10 billion to make up for the investment outflows from Wall Street. The action was successful in capping losses on the won versus the U.S. dollar on Friday.

????Such quick and decisive action on the part of the South Koreans should be replicated across other emerging market economies. This should be relatively easy for most of them as they possess large U.S. dollar reserves given their large trade surpluses with the U.S. The key will be to inject just enough dollars to preserve purchasing power without compromising the earnings power of their largest companies. A careful balance needs to be found, which will be bespoke for each country.

????Emerging market economies are still slated to see robust growth next year despite the current headwinds. A larger percentage of that growth will be from a pickup in domestic demand as their populations grow richer. Cheaper commodity prices due to a perceived downswing in worldwide demand will help local businesses cut costs, allowing them to offer more of their products to the local population.

????If local currencies remain stable, then purchasing power will be preserved, allowing for domestic consumption to grow despite the economic downturn. This silver lining should help emerging markets rebound from their current lows and once again become an attractive place for Wall Street to park its cash.