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????上月,，《財富》（Fortune）曾經(jīng)質(zhì)疑如果Facebook估值1000億美元，那么其股票是否還值得購入,。當(dāng)時的結(jié)論是：或許值得購買,！昨天又傳來新消息：Facebook計劃將其首次公開募股（IPO）發(fā)行股價定在28至35美元之間，這意味著這家年輕的科技巨頭有望實現(xiàn)770億至960億美元的估值,。

????我們曾分析過如果Facebook估值達到1000億美元,，將會面臨哪些障礙。不過,，如果在首發(fā)日其股票的交易價接近最低定價區(qū)間,，比如說為28美元，而且當(dāng)日未實現(xiàn)反彈呢,？那樣的情況將預(yù)示怎樣的前景,？

????按照EVA Dimensions公司【該公司提出了著名的經(jīng)濟增加值（EVA）理論——譯注】計算的數(shù)據(jù)，每股28美元意味著市場認為Facebook營收到2021年有望突破500億美元大關(guān)，換句話說,，F(xiàn)acebook營收的年復(fù)合增長率要達到30%,！這個數(shù)字令人驚訝，不過,，相較于1000億美元估值,，即年營收達到680億美元，前者看來要容易實現(xiàn)得多,。上述營收有一個前提條件：從現(xiàn)在起,，F(xiàn)acebook的利潤率不會嚴重惡化。（考慮到Facebook的資金成本,，其利潤率可謂高得嚇人,。去年，F(xiàn)acebook取得了37億美元營收,，利潤為10億美元——EVA Dimensions稱之為“壟斷企業(yè)利潤率”。）

????我們之前提過,，谷歌（Google）也曾碰到過類似難題,，不過它最終發(fā)展到與其估值相符，而其股價也扶搖直上,，投資者們從85美元飛上云霄,，最終達到650美元。

????Facebook股票將來的走勢很難預(yù)測,。如果你認為Facebook營收將繼續(xù)瘋狂增長,，而利潤率又不會急劇下滑的話，那么現(xiàn)在似乎正是購入良機,。如果你質(zhì)疑其增長態(tài)勢,，那么請不要出手。

????Last month, Fortune asked if Facebook's stock was worth buying if the company is valued at $100 billion. The conclusion: It might be! Then came news yesterday that Facebook will price its IPO between $28 and $35 a share, implying a valuation between $77 billion and $96 billion for the young tech giant.

????We've already said what kinds of hurdles Facebook faces with a $100 billion valuation. But what if shares trade near the low-end of the spectrum, say for $28, and don't bounce on the first day of trading? What kind of prospects does the stock offer then?

????According to the numbers crunchers at EVA Dimensions, a $28 share price means the market thinks Facebook will grow to sales of just over $50 billion in the year 2021. That's still an impressive 30% annual compound growth rate, but it seems much easier to achieve than the $68 billion in sales implied by a $100 billion valuation. Those sales figures assume that Facebook's margins don't deteriorate badly from here. (Facebook, it turns out, earns amazing profit margins when you consider its capital costs. Last year it earned $1 billion on just $3.7 billion in sales— what EVA Dimensions calls "monopoly-like margins.")

????We've said before, Google (GOOG) once faced the same hurdles but eventually grew into its valuation, and took stock investors on a ride from $85 to $650 along the way.

????There's no easy take on Facebook stock. If you believe it can continue its torrid sales growth without killing margins, the stock looks like an amazing opportunity. If you doubt it can continue boosting sales, stay away.